I have covered Howe before looking at his historic data from the Premier League from his 5 seasons in charge. Graphics can be found below. Always capable of scoring but it was generally the defensive side of the game that hurt Bournemouth most.

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For the context of analysis that follows, Howe was overachieving with Bournemouth when compared to other premier league teams finances. The 2nd lowest revenue in 18/19 with 88% coming from broadcasting (source @swissramble). They were always punching above their weight.

Style & Formation – Howe How Plays

Howe in 19/20 preferred the 442-formation playing it for 60% of the minutes. Other formations like 4141 and 541 were used more situationally based on who was available or the level of opposition. The 442 system is similar to Celtic’s diamond deploying high full backs to help keep attacks wide and opponents stretched.

Strengths

The main difference here is the fullbacks work with wingers to create overloads on the wings, to get into the best crossing positions. That being closer to the by-line and cutting a low cross back into the box.

This is supplemented by loading the box, by which Howe gets as many players into the box to increase chances of a good goalscoring chance. This isn’t chaos but organised with front post and back post runners, late runs and players holding runs. These diverse options make it difficult to stop.

It’s a game focused on creative passing, possession and working the ball into dangerous wide areas to create chances. They do not like to go long which is rare for a smaller team.

The Width Howe plays with could be useful against the Low Block as it will stretch teams. Combining it with loading the box could result in many high scoring games.

Weaknesses

The main identifiable weakness is CBs being more exposed and getting dragged into wider defensive duels due to full backs not being as close. If these duels are lost, they become exposed and cause goals. This might not be a big issue in a dominant side but was a real issue for Bournemouth who generally faced better sides. Wide and high full backs very risk and reward.

The lack of central dominance in the middle of the park can make it difficult to control games if they are left 2v3 in the middle of the park it might not be the most suitable style for Celtic.

For comparisons, I decided to split how I viewed data & formation set up between the top 8 and bottom 12 teams in the Premier League (final standings). Due to so many dominant teams and Bournemouth’s stature, it could misrepresent results.

Examples (Top 8 – Manchester United, Spurs, Liverpool & Leicester)

We can see that even against the best teams Howe deployed these tactics. Trying to get his full backs as high and wide as possible. Against these teams, we can also see that they can tend to get pegged back, becoming a flatter back 4 (Liverpool) or when 1 full back gets pushed back creating a similar close to Celtic had with Lustig and Tierney. Perhaps lack of pragmatism was Howe’s downfall at Bournemouth, the league got stronger but he still wanted to play good football.

Examples Bottom 12 (Villa, Norwich, Crystal Palace & Newcastle)

This is how I’d expect Howe to set Celtic up. Here due to weaker opposition Howe’s game plan can be visualised easier. Fullbacks are far from CB’s and nearly always in the opposition half, closer to the wingers. Cm’s closer to CB’s than fullbacks to retrieve the ball and distribute.

Celtic Comparison (Lennon’ Aberdeen & Ross County/ Kennedy Dundee Utd)

Can see full back similarities between Howe and Celtic, however, these areas will become stronger with wingers used to stretch the game. However, with only 2 CM’s Celtic could have a numerical disadvantage which isn’t great for controlling games. Also, in Howe’s system, there is no place for a Turnbull type player. Perhaps his ideas could be transferred across to a 4231 if he moved to Celtic.

Data Comparison

Surprisingly Howe’s teams perform better against the top 8 in both xG & xGA.

Top 8 – 1.19xG & 1.16xGA

Bottom 12 – 1.16xG & 1.88xGA

Most other metrics line up as expected, with metrics being better against weaker sides. Perhaps good at motivating when he’s the underdog.

However, some metrics stayed similar that weren’t expected. This makes me think they are key to style deployed and Howe’s football philosophy. These include crosses (signify wide attacks), smart passes, passes to final 3rd and touches in the penalty area. So from an attacking perspective, it seems Howe was consistent regardless of level of opposition.

Shooting Data

Shooting and shot selection appear to have been a weakness. 0.123xG per shot which was 13th in the league and below average. Celtic’s is also 0.123xG per shot. Not a great sign. Bournemouth were 17th in shots P90 as well. So poor xG per shot on few shots, is likely to put any team in trouble.

Most worryingly was that of 362 shots, 150 were from outside the box. 41% of shots coming from long range when you only have so many attacks is a worry. Harry Wilson the worst offender, reminded me a lot of Ryan Christie. Shot maps below (Wilson 19/20 left, Christie 20/21 right).

Although both take to many long shots, Howe is still getting good output from Wilson from his tactics. His goals in the centre of the box come mainly from low cross cut backs, where Wilson will be making late runs into the box and coming onto the ball. Worrying that the long shots weren’t coached out from Howe especially considering the issues it causes Celtic.

Bournemouth were 11th in headed shots, which lines up with them having the 9th best crossing accuracy in the league, as well as tactics to work the ball into wide areas. This links as well to more than half of their goals coming from set pieces or breakdowns from set pieces.

On the ball Data

The data they ranked on the ball where smart passes, through passes, deep completions and crosses.

Smart pass – A creative and penetrative pass that attempts to break the opposition’s defensive lines to gain a significant advantage in attack.

Deep Completion – A non-cross Pass that is targeted to the zone within 20 meters of the opponent’s goal.

They completed the 13th most smart passes with a higher-than-average success rate (42.6%). They were also 14th in deep completions and 14th in crosses. Most other metrics they were in the bottom 3. They completed the 14th most through passes with a higher-than-average success rate, these are passes where players are most likely to score from. Its clear Howe wants to target passing football that creates good chances. However perhaps didn’t have the resources to fully utilise these ideas.

Howe’s Bournemouth were 18th in long balls played, with only Arsenal and Man U playing less. This supports that Howe prefers to keep the ball on the deck and play football which is a positive if he were to move to Celtic.

Defensive Data

Bournemouth led the league on one aspect and that is interceptions. This would suggest that they don’t do a lot of pressing. Pressing teams make fewer interceptions as you are more likely to win the ball before passes are made or because the opposition go long. This is a concerning statistic and is backed up by Bournemouth being 16th in challenge intensity (duels/tackles/interceptions per minute of opposition possession). Celtic in comparison are last in interceptions, which is what would be expected of a dominant side.

Aerial ability was an issue for Howe as his team were involved in the 6th most aerial duels but with the 16th best success rate. Might relate to reluctance to play long balls and play favour crosses.

I would say Bournemouth do counter press with good effect. This comes as a side effect to them trying to flood the box for crosses. However, in normal play, they will sit off the opposition.

If Howe was to come to Celtic, he would need to adopt a high pressing tactic which he wouldn’t have done at his last job. Is he more than capable of implementing that? Most likely but it’s something I would identify as a risk. The differences between a dominant side that must always win and a team trying to survive are huge. Howe will not only need a large tactical shift but a mentality one as well. That’s where the risk with his appointment largely lies in my opinion.

Bournemouth conceded the 2nd greatest number of goals from outside the box (10). Not bad to let teams shoot from distance, but not a good look for Ramsdale letting so many in.

Offensive Visuals

Here are some visuals on what I identified from how Bournemouth attack.

Low Crosses/Full Backs/Loading the Box & Late Runs

Winger low cross from the by-line. Wilson makes a late run unmarked from the defences blind side, the ball breaks to him and he scores from the central area in the box (high xG chance). Low cross byline cut back one of the best methods to create high xG chances. Very difficult to defend against.

Stacey the full back overlaps Wilson creating an overload as his run isn’t matched. Wilson slips the full back in who puts in the low cross from the by-line. Notice coordination of runs when flooding the box. The front post gets the goal, but another drops deep and another looks to make the back post-run. Well drilled attacking play.

Full back plays the ball to the winger and continues his run. Winger cuts inside plays it into midfield which drags the defending full back out of position. Full back is now free gets the ball and plays a low cross across the box for a tap in.

Overlapping full backs getting high in dangerous areas is hard to defend against as it creates overloads and 2v1s

Full back plays it forward but is too far away to overlap, so forward overlaps instead. Gets to the by-line for a low cross cut back to Harry Wilson again who scores. Again, we can see how keen players are to get into the box for the cross, with 4 attackers waiting for a low cross.

The best example of flood the box tactic here at Anfield at 8 minutes in (Brave). Long ball gathered by Wilson and played wide. As usual, we get the overlapping run into space. Numerical superiority, 2v1. Played in and the low cross across goal is tapped in. Ends with 5 attackers in the opponent’s box. Increasing the chance of a shot from the cross.

Counter press

As Bournemouth attack with plenty of men, there is often the chance the counter press for a short period if they lose the ball in the final 3rd. 5 players were in the attack and are marking easy passes forcing Luiz to take a risk. Forcing this risk regains possession in a dangerous final 3rd transition and generates a goal. These high transitions are much more likely to create better chances as the defence isn’t set.

Again, here against Arsenal, they put the pressure on after losing the ball when Arsenal try to break. They win the ball as they forced Arsenal into a 1st time risky pass. Very risk and reward if this press failed Arsenal would have had a strong positional attack. So, it’s about knowing when to engage.

Although Bournemouth can’t deploy a high press due to the level of opposition I think there are tactics from Howe to press when they can, to try and create these high transitions.

Set Pieces

Howe puts time into developing offensive set plays, more than half of their goals come from them or the resulting breakdown. This is an area I think he could improve Celtic, who don’t appear great offensively from set plays.

Front post routine

A Flighted ball to the front post with the intention to flick on or get a headed shot. Wilson placed at the back reads the play and positions himself for a knockdown, making a run from the blindside.

Intelligent Corner

Short corner, first time pass back and first-time low cross into space. Harry Wilson loses his man in the crowd then runs to the space pre-planned for a fantastic goal. (Getting Wilson free in this area clearly a targeted tactic to take advantage of good finishing.

Howe likes to keep the opposition on their toes at set-pieces. He has clearly identified tactically as a way to hurt the opposition regardless of ability.

Breaking Lines

Fraser breaks the line identifying Wilson’s run into space. This doesn’t happen often but is more likely when Bournemouth’s better players get on the ball.

5 v 5 attack as full backs get involved. This stretches defence creating a gap for the line breaking pass to Wilson. A good example of how high full backs can stretch a defensive line and create exploitable gaps.

These moves aren’t a tactical priority but when the opportunity arises line breaking central passes are used by Howe.

Defensive Visuals

Here are some visuals on what I identified from how where I think Bournemouth struggled defensively.

CB in Wide Duels

From their own throw in the ball is headed back towards goal. CB engages poorly in a wide area missing the ball and losing the defensive duel. Défence exposed and City score.

CB (Cook) dragged wide loses defensive duel too easily. Runner in the box is just completely unmarked, gets it and goal. Not tracking runners, a bit of an issue as well for Bournemouth.

Full back doesn’t press leaving gap in behind. CB gets pulled wide and never gets close to putting pressure on the opposition. Ball floated in and Bournemouth are very weak in the aerial duel.

Issues from crosses

Aerial balls seem to cause havoc. With lack of marking and lapses in concentration costing Bournemouth goals.

CB Cook who seems at fault for a lot of errors is marking his man when cross is hit. But ball watches at the knockdown and doesn’t stay goal side. Poor defending, Celtic have suffered from this all season

High Full Back Risk & Reward

Here the full back is high and wide. The CB poorly decides to step out and press (Cook very similar to Duffy). This leaves spurs 3v2 in attack. They use the gap left by the full back to go wide and then cross for a tap in.

No Press and Being Exploited Over The Top

With most interception in the league, Bournemouth isn’t a pressing team. This is just to show how they can set up defensively. Allowing opposition defence to have easy possession.

With opposition not pressured they can take their time to pick out long balls over the top of the defence. All 3 of these long ball examples resulted in a goal. Bournemouth should perhaps have sat a bit deeper to prevent this.

Final Thoughts

Although some of these issues with Bournemouth might be alarming, it’s worth remembering that they are a weaker side and issues from having poorer players are expected. If anything, Howe tried to deploy good ideas and play attacking ball playing football that at times was fun to watch.

I think his lack of practicality, in the end, caused his side’s relegation as defensively they struggled with the more expansive game he was trying to deploy. Teams could too easily exploit gaps and weaknesses.

I think Howe is a very good coach and I’d be happy enough with his appointment. He shows that he wants to play on the ball and stretch teams. His ideas may well translate over to a more dominant side like Celtic

He has also shown a good ability to develop and coach players into a system that he wants to play. I believe he would bring real professionalism back to the club.

Of course, there are risks, he can’t have defenders making as many mistakes as at Bournemouth. So, he needs to focus on creating an offensive but still structured defence.

Another risk is not having managed a dominant side, but hopefully, he would be able to adapt quickly to the change.

BhoysAnalytics

2 COMMENTS

  1. Good analysis. Hard to tell who’s going to be manager. Harkin might already have a favourite or even put the feelers out on who might say yes. Howe would be a good choice but if he’s settled (family) on the south coast, maybe he’d prefer a job nearer. Or Maresca is close to Harkin. Main thing is Harkin comes in and has the decision making power to pick someone that can take us forward. Guess we’ll know soon….

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