Celtic beat Aberdeen 1-0 in another drab affair with xG at 1.34-0.63. Once again providing an xG differential under 1!

I thought we dominated without much impact early which is shown below to be true. What does the data say?

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Although Mcgregor & Soro played well based on data I think Ajer was MOTM winning 100% of his aerial duels and 86 % of his defensive duels. Both well above average. He really helped guide young Welsh through a difficult game that he made a few errors in.

McGregor & Soro

With Brown not on to hold Mcgregor back, he was much more attacking and creative providing 0.11xG & 0.34xA. He would have more dribbles, progressive runs, shot assists and offensive duels. Soro clearly brings the best out of Mcgregor. He had a great game.
Heat maps of Mcgregor from St Johnstone game compared to Aberdeen prove that Soro pushes Mcgregor up the park where he’s more effective. Mcgregor has to sit deeper when Brown plays due to his lack of mobility.
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St Johnstone Heat Map
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Aberdeen Heat Map
Soro was good as always with a higher pass accuracy than average at 92%. He would almost nullify Aberdeen offensively with 83% defensive dual success & 7 interceptions. He would also complete 100% of his 7 passes to the final 3rd.
Greg Taylor had a poor game only providing 0.13xA. Celtic are now reliant on him for creativity and width which is concerning. He only completed 1/5 crosses against Aberdeen but trickery to show he can beat a man and put a deep cross in is promising. He is improving.

Lopsided Celtic

Once again Jonjoe Kenny was a peripheral figure in the game. He has now only provided 1 cross in his last 3 matches. I assume Kenny is being told to sit much like Lustig did to allow Taylor to bomb forward.
However, comparing the position maps from the Motherwell game where Kenny had an output to Aberdeen tells an interesting story. Against Motherwell, Rogic is wide and close to Kenny so he can link up. But in the Aberdeen game, no player occupies the right side of the pitch at all.
ImageImageThis issue is shown in more detail from where strikers received the ball. The two forwards rarely collect from the right. This makes Celtic one dimensional and easier to defend against. It also shows a lack of service to CFs in the box.
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Eddy Map
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Ajeti Map

Welsh Naivety

Although better than Duffy, I’m fairly certain Welsh won’t reach the levels needed to be a Celtic CB. Too many fundamental flaws in his game for me personally. His errors lead to Aberdeen’s two best positional chances, which they fail to capitalise on.
The first poor pass from Soro leaves Welsh 1v1 with Kamberi. Instead of retreating, he engages high and loses. Only predictably poor decision making from Kamberi stops Aberdeen having a free shot within 12 yards.
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Another, Welsh gets drawn toward the ball and engages and is quick enough to pull out. The ball then is played across where Hornby should do better. If we are using Welsh in champions league qualifiers come July I’d consider recruitment to have failed.
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The Goal

At the start of the move, McRorie has identified the danger but doesn’t retreat due to Man v Man tactic (awful, undynamic, and causes all of Aberdeen’s problems). McGregor is the spare man now as the formation is 4-4-2 v 5-3-2. So he can progress the ball forward.

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Ferguson decides he has to engage, but man v man so just ends up in no man’s land as McGregor passes by him to Turnbull.

Turnbull, having lost his man, turns freely and with no real forward options hits a fantastic strike to score the winning goal.

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Turnbull’s strike of 0.04xG is a good one to let Celtic have from an Aberdeen perspective considering the position they were in. The poor chance is due to Edouard being static. Aberdeen CBs panic, step out of line and Eddy doesn’t exploit the space in behind.

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Klimala Parallel

Klimala would have Celtic’s best chance (0.28xG) of the game by doing what Eddy doesn’t for the goal. Klimala takes advantage of CB panicked stepping out to get into gap in behind and get a clear goalscoring opportunity.

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Man v Man weaknesses

Man V Man is a flawed tactic, again here McGregor skips by McCrorie into a huge gap. Ajeti gets across his defender dragging opposition with him. McGregor cuts back to Turnbull who is in lots of space now due to Ajeti but can’t finish the move.

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Crosses

Celtic were error-ridden defending crosses. I won’t go into the Greg Taylor marking Hornby as that’s all the evidence I need to know we aren’t properly coached on defending crossed balls.

Ajer likes to take up a zonal position but isn’t aware of what is around him. This means he is incapable of reacting to changing circumstances. Below show 2 incidents where his man is able to get an easy run in front of him. In the third picture, I’ve also circled an unmarked player.

Once again in the final few minutes, it’s pandemonium in the Celtic box, which is becoming a running theme. The picture shows FIVE players unmarked, including a group of four which is just astonishing. Fortunately, the cross is dreadful.

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The final attack of the game nearly results in a goal. Unmarked man gets to the ball, Christie panics and presses leaving a huge hole in the box. Fortunately, it doesn’t land for Aberdeen and the game ends. We are getting worse at defending crossed balls.

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Final thoughts

A win and a clean sheet the main positives. However, the lack of creativity and chance creation has me leaning more to the side that the result was fortunate. At the very least the core of the midfield, Soro, Mcgregor and Turnbull will be here next.

Overall, another boring game where we relied on low probability chances and luck to win. So obviously poorly coached it’s astonishing to believe it’s nearly March and it’s still happening.

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